MLB Team Previews- St. Louis Cardinals
By: Zach Perbeck
In a division with two of the top teams in the NL (Chicago and Milwaukee), could the Cardinals emerge as a playoff team and make the postseason for the first time since 2015 after making some moves this offseason?
Notable moves made by St. Louis this offseason
December 5th- Trade pitcher Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly, and infielder Andy Young to Arizona for first-baseman Paul Goldschmidt
December 21st- Sign left-handed relief pitcher Andrew Miller to a two-year $25 million deal with a third-year option (vesting at 110 games between 2019–20) and a full no-trade clause
February 27th- Sign catcher Matt Weiters to a minor-league deal
Offense
The Cardinals have a few new faces in new places but their starting lineup for 2019 looks very similar to that of the 2018 squad (2019 lineup courtesy of RotoChamp.com):
- Matt Carpenter → 3B
- Paul DeJong → SS
- Paul Goldschmidt → 1B
- Marcell Ozuna → LF
- Yadier Molina → C
- Harrison Bader → CF
- Dexter Fowler → RF
- Kolten Wong → 2B
With newly added Paul Goldschmidt added to Matt Carpenter and Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis has a formidable trio in its lineup that should be one of the best in the NL. With a combined 92 homers from that trio in 2018 would have ranked tied for fifth with the Yankees (Stanton, Andujar, Judge) among any three teammates behind only Boston (Martinez, Betts, Bogaerts), Cleveland (Lindor, Ramirez, Encarnacion), Colorado (Arenado, Story, Blackmon), Milwaukee (Yelich, Aguilar, Shaw), and Oakland (Davis, Olson, Piscotty),
While the veterans supply the power, the young Cardinals provide the energy. Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, and Yairo Munoz all contributed in 2018 and could take the next step in 2019. Even though Bader is the only one of the three with a direct path to playing time, O’Neill slugged .500 in his 130 at-bats last season while hitting nine home runs. Munoz contributed with a .276 average and a .350 on-base percentage. The future is bright in Saint Louis and combined with the veteran studs of Goldy, Carpenter, Ozuna, and Yadi there is plenty of optimism for the 2019 season as well.
Fielding
The offseason addition of Paul Goldschmidt not only adds an all-star bat to St. Louis’s lineup, but it allows Matt Carpenter to move to third base which fills the biggest hole in the Cardinal’s defensive lineup. With an outfield full of plus-defenders and one of the best defensive first basemen in the MLB, the Cardinals should not run into much trouble fielding the ball.
The aforementioned Goldschmidt is a plus defender at first base with three gold glove awards to his name. As we move to the outfield, Marcell Ozuna’s gold glove 2017 season, as well as Harrison Bader who led the MLB in five-star statcast catches in 2018, lead the Cards defensive lineup while Dexter Fowler rounds out the trio. Rounding out the defensive lineup for the Cards is nine-time gold glove award winner Yadier Molina behind the plate. Yadi has still got it and his battery mate Adam Wainwright isn’t too shabby either with two gold glove awards in his own trophy case. St. Louis is a very solid defensive unit anchored by some of the best players at their respective positions.
Pitching
Starting Rotation
After returning from a stint in Japan, Miles Mikolas pitched his way to an 18–4 record with an ERA of 2.83, enough to earn him a four-year extension worth $68 million. Not bad for someone who last pitched in the MLB in 2014. Mikolas was a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals, but their expectations for Carlos Martinez and Alex Reyes were not met quite as easily. Martinez and Reyes have both dealt with numerous injuries throughout their careers and because of this, could both end up in the bullpen for 2019 and beyond.
In terms of 2018 though, here is how some of the top starters fared for St. Louis:
RHP Miles Mikolas 18–4 with an ERA of 2.83 in 32 starts
RHP Jack Flaherty 8–9 with an ERA of 3.34 in 28 starts
RHP Luke Weaver 7–11 with an ERA of 4.95 in 25 starts
RHP John Gant 7–6 with an ERA of 3.47 in 19 starts (26 appearances)
RHP Carlos Martinez 8–6 with an ERA of 3.11 in 18 starts (33 appearances)
RHP Michael Wacha 8–2 with an ERA of 3.20 in 15 starts
RHP Adam Wainwright 2–4 with an ERA of 4.46 in 8 starts
RHP Alex Reyes 0–0 with an ERA of 0.00 in 1 start (4 innings)
The injuries to Reyes, Wainwright, and Martinez (pictured above) derailed the 2018 season which could have turned out very differently if those three were able to make 25+ starts. Instead, Jack Flaherty and Luke Weaver (traded to Arizona this offseason) were the only pitchers outside of Mikolas who compiled 20 or more starts in 2018 for the Cardinals. With the three aforementioned pitchers available for 2019, the Cardinals should be much improved with Mikolas and Flaherty continuing to anchor the rotation.
St. Louis’s 2019 Starting Rotation Projects to include the following
- RHP Miles Mikolas
- RHP Jack Flaherty
- RHP Michael Wacha
- RHP Adam Wainwright
- RHP Carlos Martinez*
Bullpen
Notice the asterisk on Carlos Martinez’s name? Well here is the explanation. It is possible that two things occur to jeopardize Martinez’s rotation spot. 1. He is not ready for the beginning of the season and 2. St. Louis decides that he is better off in the bullpen. Now, to explain. Martinez is still experiencing shoulder pain and should be ready to go sometime in April but at this point, it is unknown how much time he will miss. Second, Martinez ended up compiling five saves at the end of last season for St. Louis and the team may see more value in him as a reliever. In today’s MLB, Martinez’s versatility as a long reliever, “opener”, and closer is something that every manager would love to have in their bullpen. Adding Martinez to the bullpen would further bolster an already impressive group. In this case, John Gant would join the rotation in Martinez’s spot.
Starter number two that is most likely to end up in the bullpen is former top prospect Alex Reyes. Reyes has been plagued with injuries and because of that has not lived up to his potential. Last season he pitched only four innings, leaving fans wondering ‘what if’. This season the Red Birds are expected to use him out of the bullpen and possibly evolve his role into a spot in the starting rotation.
Outside of converted starters, St. Louis’s bullpen can hold its own. Free agent signee Andrew Miller and flamethrower Jordan Hicks headline a group of relievers that could very well be the best of the NL. Luke Gregerson is the wild card of the bunch and is rehabbing an injury to his throwing shoulder. He should return sometime in April but it is yet to be decided when. As mentioned above, established all-star Andrew Miller looks to complement a young righty who could become one of the best closers in the MLB. Hicks has electrified the baseball world with his 100+ mph fastballs and sinkers. In an appearance against Philadelphia, Hicks tormented center-fielder Odubel Herrera with five straight 103+ mph pitches, including two sinkers at 105 mph. Hard to hit doesn’t start to describe Hicks’s repertoire.
Strengths
Depth/Versatility: Outfield depth, in particular, is a strength for St. Louis, with many of players who could slot in the outfield including Ozuna, O’Neill, Bader, Fowler, Jose Martinez, Carpenter, and Drew Robinson.
Rotation Depth: While not all will make starts regularly, the Cardinals have plenty of arms who could make starts this year, to name a few: Mikolas, Flaherty, Wainwright, Wacha, Reyes, Martinez, and Gant
Bullpen: Leone, Cecil, Shreve, Gregerson, Reyes, Miller, Hicks, and potentially Carlos Martinez makes this bullpen one of the best in the MLB and a force to be reckoned with.
Youth: With Harrison Bader, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, Alex Reyes, and Tyler O’Neill all making impacts in the majors, the Cardinals are poised for a bright future.
Weaknesses
Frontline Starter/Innings-Eater: The Cardinals could use a top starter as Adam Wainwright ages and Carlos Martinez’s injury history may force him into the bullpen. St. Louis needs some peanut butter to Miles Mikolas’s jelly and an innings-eater or top of the rotation pitcher is what they could use.
Middle Infield consistency: Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong have been two very streaky hitters over the courses of their respective careers and while Jedd Gyorko is a nice veteran presence, DeJong and/or Wong need to be more consistent at the plate for the Cards to become a complete offensive unit.
Available Free Agents that would fit well in St. Louis
LHP Dallas Keuchel (31 years old)- Would be the only lefty in the rotation
RHP Edwin Jackson (35)- An Experienced pitcher who could eat innings
RHP Bartolo Colon (46)- Who wouldn’t want Bartolo’s experience?
Final Verdict
The Cardinals have made the right moves this offseason and look poised to contend for at least a wild card spot in 2019. With the Cubs and Brewers keeping their cores intact and Cincinnati improving, the NL Central will be the most interesting division in the MLB this season and the Cardinals will be in the thick of the race for NL Central Champion. I would not be surprised at all to see St. Louis playing in October, especially with the new pieces they have added in Goldschmidt and Miller.
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